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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Damac welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Dhamak Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Damac's home record at Dhamak Club Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Damac's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Damac register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Damac have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Damac trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.27 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.885 / defence 1.182 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.127 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.310. Data: 58 Damac games / 24 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Damac 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

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