Al Shabab 1-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al Shabab welcome Al Wehda Club to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Shabab) versus 1.30 (Al Wehda Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Wehda Club have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Al Shabab.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Al Wehda Club winning.
It is worth noting that Al Wehda Club have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 54% versus Al Wehda Club 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 58% | Al Wehda Club 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.69 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.923 / defence 0.871 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.789 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.386. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Al Shabab games / 48 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 54% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wehda Club 4.76. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 50% | Al Wehda Club 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 54% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Shabab 1.69 / Al Wehda Club 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.923 / def 0.871 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.789 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al Wehda Club xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 December 2023 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Al Shabab 1 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 54% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wehda Club 3W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.00
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.64
0.95
Al Wehda Club xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
4%
26.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.95 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 21W 11D 16L from 48 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 23L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.54 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 13W 5D 5L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 6W 3D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.19 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 21W 11D 16L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.91 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
0
Draws
3
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 39%, Al Wehda Club 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Shabab) and 44% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 44% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al Shabab's recent games and 44% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al Wehda Club 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Wehda Club 1-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.69 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.95 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 54% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 21%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 58%, Al Wehda Club 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.54 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.