Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Al-Ettifaq hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Ettifaq have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 52% versus Al-Ettifaq 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Ettifaq 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.91 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.709 / defence 0.873 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.936 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.375. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Al-Fayha games / 42 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ettifaq 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al-Ettifaq 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Fayha 0.91 / Al-Ettifaq 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.709 / def 0.873 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.936 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.71x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.94x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
29%
3.49
32%
3.17
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.03
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.12 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 15D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.38 PPG from 42 outings (16W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.38 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.12 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 38%, Al-Ettifaq 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Fayha) and 38% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 48% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 38% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.91 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.71 / defence 0.87 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 40%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 48%, Al-Ettifaq 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.