Al Taee 4-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al Baten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 31 December 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Taee at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taee are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Baten's record over their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Al Baten's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Al Taee's 1.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al Baten's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al Taee, 0 for Al Baten and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2022, ended Al Taee 3–1 Al Baten — a Al Taee win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taee — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Baten — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 45% versus Al Baten 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al Baten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.91 xG and Al Baten 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.116 / defence 0.962 | Al Baten attack 0.788 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.112. Al Baten's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taee's projected output up. Al Baten's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Al Taee's last 40 games and Al Baten's last 40.
Result probabilities: Al Taee 62% | Draw 22% | Al Baten 16%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Al Baten 6.35. The model has a clear lean to Al Taee (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taee 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Baten 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 December 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 62% | Draw 22% | Al Baten 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Al Taee 1.91 / Al Baten 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.116 / def 0.962 | Al Baten attack 0.788 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al Baten xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taee vs Al Baten FAQs
What time does Al Taee vs Al Baten kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Baten kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Al Taee 4 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Baten part of?
Al Taee vs Al Baten is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 62% chance of winning, Al Baten a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taee and Al Baten will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Al Taee vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taee's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.79x) against Al Taee's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Al Taee's last 40 games and Al Baten's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.55
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.75
0.84
Al Baten xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
42.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taee vs Al Baten Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al Taee and 0.84 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 16W 4D 20L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Baten's form line: 8W 10D 22L from 40 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Al Taee are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Baten.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.74 PPG from their last 19 home games (10W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 2W 4D 13L from their last 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.90 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
Al Taee (Home) vs Al Baten (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taee
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Al Taee vs Al Baten Form FAQs
What form are Al Taee and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 16W 4D 20L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 8W 10D 22L in their last 40 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Baten away?
Al Taee's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.74 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Al Taee and Al Baten, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taee won Al Taee 4-0 Al Baten on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Taee
1
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taee vs Al Baten H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Baten?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taee have won 2, Al Baten have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Baten last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2023: Al Baten 4-3 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Baten?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 58%, Al Baten 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al Taee) and 42% (Al Baten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Baten in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taee vs Al Baten Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taee and Al Baten matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al Taee's recent matches and 32% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Taee and Al Baten matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Taee's matches and 42% of Al Baten's.
Do Al Taee and Al Baten matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Al Taee's recent matches and 42% of Al Baten's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taee run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al Baten 4-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.91 xG and Al Baten 0.84 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Baten landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Al Baten attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 62% | Draw 22% | Al Baten 16%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 58%, Al Baten 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.