Al-Fayha 2-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 38%, yet in-form Al Taee provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fayha vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 26 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Taee are 1.30 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Taee and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 38% versus Al Taee 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 26% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.24 xG and Al Taee 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.820 / defence 1.103 | Al Taee attack 0.933 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.142. Data: 39 Al-Fayha games / 39 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 28% | Al Taee 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taee 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taee (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Taee 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 28% | Al Taee 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Fayha 1.24 / Al Taee 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.820 / def 1.103 | Al Taee attack 0.933 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Taee xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taee kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Al-Fayha 2 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 38% chance of winning, Al Taee a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taee in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Taee (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.82) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.93x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.63
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.41
1.18
Al Taee xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.18 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 13D 17L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 16W 4D 19L from 39 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.33 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 6W 1D 12L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.15 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 16W 4D 19L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.42 PPG; Al Taee away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Taee in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 4, Al Taee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 21% (Al-Fayha) and 32% (Al Taee) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 16% for Al-Fayha and 47% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 42% of games; Al Taee in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 32% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 16% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 47% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al Taee 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Taee 2-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.24 xG and Al Taee 1.18 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Al Taee attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 28% | Al Taee 35%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 26%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.03 PPG, Al Taee 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.