Al-Nassr 2-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al Taee travel to Mrsool Park to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 January 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mrsool Park, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Nassr have won 1, Al Taee 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 4–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Taee in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 54% versus Al Taee 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 66% | Al Taee 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.16 xG and Al Taee 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.340 / defence 0.926 | Al Taee attack 0.903 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.151. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Al-Nassr games / 41 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 65% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Al Taee 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al Taee 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 65% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Nassr 2.16 / Al Taee 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.340 / def 0.926 | Al Taee attack 0.903 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al Taee xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taee kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Al-Nassr 2 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 65% chance of winning, Al Taee a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taee in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al Taee (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.34) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.11
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.12
0.96
Al Taee xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
12%
8.69
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
2%
55.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.96 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr come into this having played 41 games, going 27W 6D 8L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.34 PPG from 41 outings (17W 4D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Nassr's home form reads 14W 4D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (6W 1D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 27W 6D 8L in their last 41 games (2.12 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 17W 4D 20L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.19 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Taee in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Al-Nassr won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Al-Nassr 5-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 62%, Al Taee 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al-Nassr) and 48% (Al Taee). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 33% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 48% of Al Taee's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taee 2-0 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.16 xG and Al Taee 0.96 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.34 / defence 0.93 against Al Taee attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 65% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 16%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 66%, Al Taee 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.