Al-Raed 2-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Taawon at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Taawon travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taawon — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al Taawon's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Raed, 1 for Al Taawon and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 40% versus Al Taawon 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 48% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.13 xG and Al Taawon 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.840 / defence 1.281 | Al Taawon attack 0.980 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.108. Data: 40 Al-Raed games / 40 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 30% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Raed 20% | Al Taawon 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 30% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Raed 1.13 / Al Taawon 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.840 / def 1.281 | Al Taawon attack 0.980 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Taawon xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Al-Raed 2 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 30% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.84) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.64
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.52
1.39
Al Taawon xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.39 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 14W 6D 20L from 40 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 12L across 40 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.20 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 9W 2D 9L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.45 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 14W 6D 20L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 13W 15D 12L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Taawon runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taawon have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 25%, Al Taawon 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Al-Raed) and 55% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Raed have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 70% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Al-Raed's recent games and 55% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Raed 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Raed 2-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.13 xG and Al Taawon 1.39 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taawon outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.84 / defence 1.28 against Al Taawon attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 30% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 48%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.20 PPG, Al Taawon 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.