Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 3D 2L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Fayha and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2023, ended 4–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Fayha trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% and Al-Fayha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Al-Fayha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86 xG and Al-Fayha 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.128 / defence 0.839 | Al-Fayha attack 1.107 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Data: 33 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 63 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 4.35. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86 / Al-Fayha 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.128 / def 0.839 | Al-Fayha attack 1.107 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.13) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.73
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.09
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
4%
27.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.24 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 18W 8D 7L from 33 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 11L across 33 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 10W 4D 2L from 16 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 4D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.33 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha in 67%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 18W 8D 7L in their last 33 games (1.88 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 11D 11L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.12 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44%, Al-Fayha at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 75% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 88% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 75% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86 xG and Al-Fayha 1.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.13 / defence 0.84 against Al-Fayha attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 23%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%, Al-Fayha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.