Al Riyadh 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Riyadh face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Damac at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Riyadh stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Riyadh's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Damac — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Damac have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Riyadh at 1.10 PPG versus Damac's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Riyadh, 0 for Damac and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2024, ended Al Riyadh 2–2 Damac — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Damac trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 54% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 52% | Damac 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Riyadh surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Damac have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Damac surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Al Riyadh recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.20 xG and Damac 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.760 / defence 0.825 | Damac attack 0.732 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.323. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Damac's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 59 games and Damac's last 59.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 45% | Draw 30% | Damac 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.21 | Draw 3.33 | Damac 4.06. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 30% (last 10 home games) | Damac 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 45% | Draw 30% | Damac 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Al Riyadh 1.20 / Damac 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.760 / def 0.825 | Damac attack 0.732 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Damac xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al Riyadh vs Damac kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Damac kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Al Riyadh 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Damac part of?
Al Riyadh vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 45% chance of winning, Damac a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al Riyadh and Damac will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Al Riyadh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Riyadh's last 59 games and Damac's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.33
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.00
0.80
Damac xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Riyadh vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 0.80 for Damac, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 17W 17D 25L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 25L across 59 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 1.15 PPG, Damac on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 9W 10D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Riyadh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.25 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Damac
Blended
Al Riyadh (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Riyadh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Al Riyadh vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al Riyadh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Damac have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Damac away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.28 PPG; Damac away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2026, when Damac won Damac 3-0 Al Riyadh.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Riyadh vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Damac?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Riyadh have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 March 2026: Damac 3-0 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 45%, Damac 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al Riyadh) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 34% of games; Damac in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Riyadh and Damac matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 55% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Riyadh and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 62% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Riyadh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al Riyadh and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.20 xG and Damac 0.80 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.76 / defence 0.82 against Damac attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 45% | Draw 30% | Damac 25%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 52%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.15 PPG, Damac 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.