Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Kholood face Al-Fayha.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Al-Fayha travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Kholood stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Kholood's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al-Fayha have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Al Kholood) versus 1.10 (Al-Fayha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Fayha 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2026, ended Al Kholood 2–2 Al-Fayha — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al Kholood in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 67% | Al-Fayha 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.39 xG and Al-Fayha 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.934 / defence 1.260 | Al-Fayha attack 0.751 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.478. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. Al Kholood's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 45 games and Al-Fayha's last 46.

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 35% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.88 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fayha 2.84. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Al Kholood 35% and Al-Fayha 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 40% (last 10 away games).

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