Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al-Hazm host Al-Faisaly FC at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 4W 3D 3L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 1.00 (Al-Faisaly FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 67% and Al-Faisaly FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.78 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.940 / defence 1.104 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.798 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Al-Hazm games / 12 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 47% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Faisaly FC 3.85. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.

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