Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al Diriyah travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season.
Al Diriyah — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Diriyah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Diriyah's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Diriyah and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Diriyah trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% versus Al Diriyah 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al Diriyah 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98 xG and Al Diriyah 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.276 / defence 1.056 | Al Diriyah attack 0.744 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 12 Al Diriyah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al Diriyah 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al Diriyah 5.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Diriyah 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al Diriyah 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98 / Al Diriyah 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.276 / def 1.056 | Al Diriyah attack 0.744 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Diriyah xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 54% chance of winning, Al Diriyah a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Diriyah 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al Diriyah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.28) and Al Diriyah's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Diriyah's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.89
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.16
Al Diriyah xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
3%
36.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.16 for Al Diriyah, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 9W 1D 2L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Diriyah's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al Diriyah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Diriyah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Al Diriyah have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Al Diriyah travel well.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Diriyah are on 0.83 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Diriyah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 9W 1D 2L in their last 12 games (2.33 PPG), while Al Diriyah have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Diriyah away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Diriyah away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Diriyah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Diriyah in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al Diriyah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al Diriyah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al Diriyah 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Diriyah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 100%, Al Diriyah 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 60% for Al Diriyah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Diriyah in 40%; Al Diriyah in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Diriyah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Diriyah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 20% of Al Diriyah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 60% of Al Diriyah's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Diriyah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.