Abha vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Fayha (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Abha face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Fayha at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 25 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.17 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 0W 1D 2L at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.63 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.17). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Abha have won 1, Al-Fayha 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 67% and Al-Fayha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 67% | Al-Fayha 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.00 xG and Al-Fayha 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.704 / defence 1.144 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Abha's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Abha games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 27% | Draw 35% | Al-Fayha 38%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Fayha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Abha 67% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 27% | Draw 35% | Al-Fayha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Abha 1.00 / Al-Fayha 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.704 / def 1.144 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Fayha xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Abha vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 25 February 2027 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Abha vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Fayha part of?
Abha vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 27% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Abha and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Record (7 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 3W.
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Abha's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
27%
3.69
35%
2.88
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Abha xG
Total xG
2.23
1.23
Al-Fayha xG
3.69
27%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Abha and 1.23 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Abha have picked up 0.17 PPG on a 0W 1D 5L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Fayha are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Fayha in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Fayha away?
Abha's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al-Fayha runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Abha
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
From 7 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 67%, Al-Fayha at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Abha) and 67% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 33%; Abha have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Abha's games and 67% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Abha's recent games and 67% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.