Al-Ittihad FC 0-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Kholood travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Kholood stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad FC at 1.40 PPG versus Al Kholood's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Jan 2026, ended Al-Ittihad FC 4–0 Al Kholood — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Kholood trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 64% and Al Kholood 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Al Kholood 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG and Al Kholood 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.942 / defence 0.919 | Al Kholood attack 1.030 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.435. Al Kholood's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 63 games and Al Kholood's last 64.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.11 | Draw 4.27 | Al Kholood 3.43. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ittihad FC 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al Kholood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Kholood 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 31 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 / Al Kholood 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.942 / def 0.919 | Al Kholood attack 1.030 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al Kholood xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 31) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 63 games and Al Kholood's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.27
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.36
Al Kholood xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
5%
20.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.36 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 63 games, going 40W 11D 12L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.11 PPG from 63 outings (21W 7D 35L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 25W 1D 5L across their last 31 home games, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (10W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.29 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al Kholood
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al Kholood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al Kholood
Current Season
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 40W 11D 12L in their last 63 games (2.08 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 21W 7D 35L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al Kholood 0-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
0
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al Kholood have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 55%, Al Kholood 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 64% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Kholood in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 61% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 64% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 71% of Al Kholood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 31, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG and Al Kholood 1.36 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Kholood landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Al Kholood attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 29%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 56%, Al Kholood 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Kholood's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.