Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Al-Ettifaq — Al-Ettifaq have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–0 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% versus Al-Ettifaq 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Al-Ettifaq 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Hilal Saudi FC surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Al-Ettifaq have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Al-Ettifaq surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.158 / defence 0.925 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.932 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.442. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 33 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 33.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.69 | Draw 3.67 | Al-Ettifaq 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 / Al-Ettifaq 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.158 / def 0.925 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.932 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 28 August 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 37% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.93x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 33 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.67
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.24 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 19W 9D 5L from 33 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 13L across 33 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 9W 5D 2L from their last 16 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 4W 4D 8L across their last 16 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 19W 9D 5L in their last 33 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Ettifaq 0-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, Al-Ettifaq 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 38% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 31%; Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 31% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 38% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 2-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 36%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.