Al-Raed 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Raed face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Raed have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Al-Raed have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Al-Raed.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 May 2023, ended Al-Raed 2–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 56% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 69% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Raed surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.973 / defence 1.139 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.177 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.389. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 32 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 24% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 4.21 | Draw 4.42 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.87. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Raed 32 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 24% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al-Raed 1.17 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.973 / def 1.139 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.177 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC FAQs
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 24 August 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Raed 0 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 3) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Raed's last 32 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
24%
4.21
23%
4.42
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.03
1.86
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
4%
27.10
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.86 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 9W 7D 16L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 18W 9D 5L from 32 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 16 home games (5W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 4D 3L from their last 16 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Raed (Home) vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 18W 9D 5L in their last 32 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 7 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Raed 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
1
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 May 2025: Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 56%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Al-Raed) and 44% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 31% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Raed's matches and 44% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 75% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 0-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.86 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 24% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 69%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.