Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Hazm to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 3 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 0W 1D 2L — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On current form, Al Khaleej Saihat have the edge — a 1.17 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 100% and Al-Hazm 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 67% | Al-Hazm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG and Al-Hazm 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.046 / defence 1.206 | Al-Hazm attack 0.700 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.390. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hazm's projected output up. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 33 games and Al-Hazm's last 3.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.29 | Draw 3.86 | Al-Hazm 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 33% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 / Al-Hazm 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.046 / def 1.206 | Al-Hazm attack 0.700 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Hazm xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 44% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 33 games and Al-Hazm's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.86
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.63
1.17
Al-Hazm xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.17 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.33 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al Khaleej Saihat have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2025, when Al Khaleej Saihat won Al-Hazm 1-4 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Al Khaleej Saihat 4-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Khaleej Saihat at 100%, Al-Hazm at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 33% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%; Al-Hazm in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 33% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 33% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm finished level at 1-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG and Al-Hazm 1.17 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against Al-Hazm attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 30%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 67%, Al-Hazm 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.33 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.