Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al Wehda Club (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 0.70 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Fateh in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Wehda Club lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 50% versus Al-Fateh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 48% | Al-Fateh 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.76 xG and Al-Fateh 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.244 / defence 1.132 | Al-Fateh attack 0.977 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.476. Data: 54 Al Wehda Club games / 54 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 41% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 80% | Al-Fateh 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 41% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.76 / Al-Fateh 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.244 / def 1.132 | Al-Fateh attack 0.977 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Al-Fateh xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 41% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.98x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.20
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.39
1.63
Al-Fateh xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.63 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 16W 11D 27L from 54 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 22L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 1.37 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 9W 8D 9L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 12W 4D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.61 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.35 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al Wehda Club have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 62%, Al-Fateh 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Wehda Club and 77% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Wehda Club's games and 65% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 77% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al Wehda Club 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Wehda Club 2-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.76 xG and Al-Fateh 1.63 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.24 / defence 1.13 against Al-Fateh attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 41% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 36%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 48%, Al-Fateh 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.09 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.