Al Riyadh 1-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al Taee travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Riyadh. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Riyadh at 0.90 PPG versus Al Taee's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al Taee 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Al Taee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taee in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 52% versus Al Taee 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 48% | Al Taee 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al Taee 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.663 / defence 1.022 | Al Taee attack 0.668 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.420. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Al Riyadh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Al Riyadh games / 57 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 42% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Al Taee 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 60% | Al Taee 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 42% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Riyadh 1.26 / Al Taee 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.663 / def 1.022 | Al Taee attack 0.668 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al Taee xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taee?
Al Riyadh 1 - 2 Al Taee.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Taee part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 42% chance of winning, Al Taee a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taee in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Al Taee (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.28
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.23
0.97
Al Taee xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 0.97 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Riyadh come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 7D 14L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 0.85 PPG from 27 outings (6W 5D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 0.93 PPG, Al Taee on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Riyadh's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Riyadh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.00 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al Taee away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.08 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
0
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taee?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al Taee have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Al Riyadh 1-2 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 46%, Al Taee 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Al Riyadh and 38% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 31% of games; Al Taee in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 38% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 38% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al Riyadh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al Riyadh 1-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al Taee 0.97 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.66 / defence 1.02 against Al Taee attack 0.67 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 42% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 27%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 48%, Al Taee 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.93 PPG, Al Taee 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.