Al-Fateh 2-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fateh face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fateh.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al-Ittihad FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.11 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.872 / defence 0.990 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.065 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.471. Data: 53 Al-Fateh games / 53 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.13. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Fateh 1.11 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.872 / def 0.990 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.065 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fateh 2 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 4W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.79
27%
3.74
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.66
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
6%
17.85
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.55 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 21W 11D 21L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 34W 10D 9L from 53 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 15W 7D 4L from 26 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.96 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 21W 11D 21L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 10D 9L in their last 53 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.31 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
7
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 54%, Al-Ittihad FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Fateh) and 62% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 50%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 46% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 2-4 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.11 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Ittihad FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.