Al Taee 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Al Taee have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Taee against 1.20 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al Taee, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Al-Ettifaq — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2023, ended 3–4 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Taee and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 49% versus Al-Ettifaq 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al-Ettifaq 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 0.93 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.914 / defence 1.189 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.894 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.490. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Al Taee games / 53 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 1.92. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 60% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taee 0.93 / Al-Ettifaq 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.914 / def 1.189 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.894 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taee 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taee 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.89x) against Al Taee's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
22%
4.59
26%
3.82
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.52
1.58
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
4%
22.33
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.58 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taee's recent record stands at 16W 7D 30L from 53 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 20L across 53 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Al Taee against 1.34 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 12W 2D 12L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 8W 6D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.08 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 16W 7D 30L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Taee's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.46 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Taee
1
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 4, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 50%, Al-Ettifaq 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al Taee) and 35% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 35%; Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taee's recent matches and 31% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Al Taee's recent games and 35% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 0.93 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.58 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 0.71, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 52%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 58%, Al-Ettifaq 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.04 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.