Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Nassr make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Nassr (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2.20 for Al-Nassr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, Al-Nassr 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 3–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% and Al-Nassr 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Al-Nassr 91%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 xG and Al-Nassr 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.865 / defence 0.790 | Al-Nassr attack 1.515 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.490. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 53 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 2.00. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Nassr 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 / Al-Nassr 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.865 / def 0.790 | Al-Nassr attack 1.515 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Al-Nassr xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 0 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 26% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.51x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
26%
3.84
24%
4.15
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.02
1.78
Al-Nassr xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
22.84
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.78 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 23 games, going 14W 5D 4L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.30 PPG from 23 outings (17W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.04 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.30 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 7W 4D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.45 points per game from 11 outings (9W 0D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.83 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 74%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 14W 5D 4L in their last 23 games (2.04 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 17W 2D 4L in their last 23 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.27 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.45 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%, Al-Nassr 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 36% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 100% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 82% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 100% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 xG and Al-Nassr 1.78 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.86 / defence 0.79 against Al-Nassr attack 1.51 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 50%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%, Al-Nassr 91%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.04 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.