Al-Ettifaq vs Abha Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Abha at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Abha have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Abha have posted 0W 1D 5L from their last 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Abha and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Sep 2026, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–0 Abha — a Al-Ettifaq win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Abha trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 46% | Abha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.54 xG and Abha 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.877 / defence 1.268 | Abha attack 0.654 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.477. Abha's attack rating of 0.654 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Abha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 46 games and Abha's last 11.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Abha 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.36 | Draw 3.37 | Abha 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Abha's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 70% (last 10 home games) | Abha 50% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Abha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.54 / Abha 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.877 / def 1.268 | Abha attack 0.654 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Abha xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Abha FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Abha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Abha a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Abha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.88x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 46 games and Abha's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.37
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.77
1.23
Abha xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Abha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.23 for Abha, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 8L across 11 games — 0.27 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 0W 2D 3L from their last 5 home games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.45 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Abha's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across their last 5 away games, a 0.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Abha
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Abha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Abha Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Abha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (0.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 0.40 PPG; Abha away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Abha in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won Al-Ettifaq 3-0 Abha.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Abha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Abha have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Abha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Abha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 60%, Abha 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Ettifaq and 60% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 40% of games; Abha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Abha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Abha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 60% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Abha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 60% of Abha's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Abha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 80% of Abha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.