Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 1D 2L across 9 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.11 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.44 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 0L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
Al Wehda Club have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ahli Jeddah. A 0.81 PPG lead over Al Wehda Club (2.11 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% versus Al Wehda Club 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al Wehda Club 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.84 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.983 / defence 0.854 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.917 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.433. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 39 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Al Wehda Club 4.35. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al Wehda Club 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.84 / Al Wehda Club 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.983 / def 0.854 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.917 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Wehda Club xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 54% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.92x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.38
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.96
1.12
Al Wehda Club xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
27.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.12 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 6W 1D 2L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.89 scored and 1.89 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%, Al Wehda Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 75% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 50% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 75% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Wehda Club 3-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.84 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.12 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 23%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al Wehda Club 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.