Al-Nassr 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Nassr face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Nassr welcome Damac to Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Nassr's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Damac have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Damac, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Al-Nassr 3–0 Damac — a Al-Nassr win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Nassr and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Damac trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 44% versus Damac 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 64% | Damac 51%). Note also that Damac surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Al-Nassr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.14 xG and Damac 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.304 / defence 1.109 | Damac attack 0.906 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.417. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.304 — their 2.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 39 games and Damac's last 39.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Damac 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.85 | Draw 4.82 | Damac 3.95. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.14 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 home games) | Damac 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Damac 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Al-Nassr 2.14 / Damac 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.304 / def 1.109 | Damac attack 0.906 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Damac xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Damac kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Damac kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Damac part of?
Al-Nassr vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Damac a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Nassr and Damac will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.30) and Damac's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 39 games and Damac's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.85
21%
4.82
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.57
1.43
Damac xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
3%
33.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.43 for Damac, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 39 games, going 26W 8D 5L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (11W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 14W 4D 1L across their last 19 home games, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 19 away games (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Damac
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 26W 8D 5L in their last 39 games (2.21 PPG), while Damac have gone 11W 13D 15L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Damac away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.42 PPG; Damac away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Damac in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 10 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Damac specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 10, Damac have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Damac 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Nassr and 53% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Damac in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Damac matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 58% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Nassr's matches and 53% of Damac's.
Do Al-Nassr and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 74% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 2-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.14 xG and Damac 1.43 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 1.11 against Damac attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Damac 25%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 64%, Damac 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.