Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 1D 2L from 8 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 2.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 4–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 25% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 62% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.83 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / defence 0.891 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.087 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.450. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.519 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Al-Ittihad FC games / 8 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 16% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.83 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 16% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.83 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / def 0.891 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.087 / def 1.519 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 67% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 17% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.23x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
67%
1.49
16%
6.17
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
4.23
1.41
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.49
67%
Home win
6.17
16%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
6%
16.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
1%
101.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.41 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 6W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad FC on 2.38 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.62 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking output running into Al-Ittihad FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 games (2.38 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 67%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Ittihad FC and 100% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.83 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.09 / defence 1.52, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 16% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 17%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ahli Jeddah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 62%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.