Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al-Fayha to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 1.30 (Al-Fayha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al-Fayha and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 45% versus Al-Fayha 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 47% | Al-Fayha 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.85 xG and Al-Fayha 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.348 / defence 1.082 | Al-Fayha attack 1.003 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.456. Al Wehda Club carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Al Wehda Club games / 38 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 44% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fayha 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 44% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.85 / Al-Fayha 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.348 / def 1.082 | Al-Fayha attack 1.003 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al-Fayha xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 44% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (1.35) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
44%
2.25
22%
4.48
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.43
1.58
Al-Fayha xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.58 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 8D 18L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (10W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 1.16 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.28 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
3
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 50%, Al-Fayha 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Wehda Club) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Wehda Club's games and 61% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.85 xG and Al-Fayha 1.58 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.35 / defence 1.08 against Al-Fayha attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 44% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 33%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 47%, Al-Fayha 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.16 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.