🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Baltika 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Baltika 1-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.43 xG and Baltika 0.75 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.24 / defence 0.82 against Baltika attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 52% | Draw 29% | Baltika 19%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 39%, Baltika 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Baltika's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zenit 2.17 PPG, Baltika 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zenit win broke the near-deadlock. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights