Zenit 1-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Zenit at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Baltika encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Zenit and Baltika meet at Gazprom Arena in Premier League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time.

Current Form

Zenit's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Zenit at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Baltika (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Baltika away from home: 4W 4D 1L from their last 9 away games — 1.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 9 away games (67%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Zenit's 2.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Baltika's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Zenit edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Zenit 0–0 Baltika — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Zenit half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Baltika half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 44% versus Baltika 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zenit 39% | Baltika 17%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.43 xG and Baltika 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.239 / defence 0.816 | Baltika attack 0.900 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.027. Data: built from Zenit's last 48 games and Baltika's last 18.

Result probabilities: Zenit 52% | Draw 29% | Baltika 19%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Baltika 5.29. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zenit 40% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 22% (last 9 away games).

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