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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Akhmat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Akhmat 3-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.79 xG and Akhmat 1.26 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against Akhmat attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 50% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 27%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 57%, Akhmat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Akhmat's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights