Spartak Moscow 3-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spartak Moscow welcome Akhmat to Lukoil Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lukoil Arena, Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Akhmat — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Spartak Moscow are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Spartak Moscow, 1 for Akhmat and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Spartak Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Akhmat trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 46% versus Akhmat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 57% | Akhmat 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.79 xG and Akhmat 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.184 / defence 1.070 | Akhmat attack 1.085 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.087. Data: 54 Spartak Moscow games / 54 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 50% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 27%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Akhmat 3.70. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | Akhmat 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 50% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.79 / Akhmat 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.184 / def 1.070 | Akhmat attack 1.085 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Akhmat xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow 3 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 50% chance of winning, Akhmat a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (8 meetings): Spartak Moscow 2W | Draws 5 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Akhmat (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.32
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.05
1.26
Akhmat xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
4%
22.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.26 for Akhmat, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 29W 12D 13L from 54 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 23L across 54 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spartak Moscow have managed 18W 5D 4L from 27 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 2W 10D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 29W 12D 13L in their last 54 games (1.83 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 13W 18D 23L in their last 54 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.19 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Akhmat in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
5
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Akhmat have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Akhmat 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 44%, Akhmat 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Spartak Moscow and 52% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Akhmat in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 59% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 52% of Akhmat's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Akhmat 3-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.79 xG and Akhmat 1.26 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against Akhmat attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 50% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 27%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 57%, Akhmat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.