Spartak Moscow 3-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Spartak Moscow welcome Akhmat to Lukoil Arena in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Akhmat — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Spartak Moscow are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and Akhmat's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Spartak Moscow have won 2, Akhmat 1, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 8 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Spartak Moscow 2–1 Akhmat — a Spartak Moscow win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Spartak Moscow trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Akhmat trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 46% versus Akhmat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 57% | Akhmat 46%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Spartak Moscow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.79 xG and Akhmat 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.184 / defence 1.070 | Akhmat attack 1.085 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.087. Data: built from Spartak Moscow's last 54 games and Akhmat's last 54.

Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 50% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 27%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.00 | Draw 4.32 | Akhmat 3.71. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and Akhmat's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spartak Moscow 70% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights