Rubin 3-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Rostov (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rubin face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Ak Bars Arena to face Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Rubin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Ak Bars Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
FC Rostov have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Rostov arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Rostov, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with FC Rostov winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Rostov have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 41% versus FC Rostov 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 37% | FC Rostov 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.83 xG and FC Rostov 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.769 / defence 1.010 | FC Rostov attack 0.963 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.230. Rubin's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Rubin games / 57 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 25% | Draw 31% | FC Rostov 44%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | FC Rostov 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rubin 40% | FC Rostov 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 25% | Draw 31% | FC Rostov 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Rubin 0.83 / FC Rostov 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.769 / def 1.010 | FC Rostov attack 0.963 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Rostov xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs FC Rostov kick off?
Rubin vs FC Rostov kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Rubin 3 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Rubin vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs FC Rostov part of?
Rubin vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 25% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rubin and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Rostov?
Record (3 meetings): Rubin 0W | Draws 0 | FC Rostov 3W.
What form are Rubin and FC Rostov in?
Rubin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. FC Rostov (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.77x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.96x) against Rubin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
25%
3.97
31%
3.23
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.03
1.20
FC Rostov xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rubin and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Rubin and 1.20 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rubin come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 8D 9L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Rostov sit at 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Rubin against 1.48 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rubin's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Rostov have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rubin are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.44 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 11W 7D 9L in their last 27 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or FC Rostov away?
Rubin's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.31 PPG; FC Rostov away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Rubin or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won 5-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rubin
1
Draws
4
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Rostov?
From 8 meetings on record, Rubin have won 3, FC Rostov have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when FC Rostov 2-0 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 54%, FC Rostov 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Rubin) and 46% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 31% of games; FC Rostov in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play FC Rostov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rubin's recent matches and 46% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Rubin's recent games and 46% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat FC Rostov 3-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.83 xG and FC Rostov 1.20 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against FC Rostov attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 25% | Draw 31% | FC Rostov 44%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Rubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 37%, FC Rostov 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Rostov's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.41 PPG, FC Rostov 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. FC Rostov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.