Fakel 0-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Fakel take on Ural.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fakel host Ural at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fakel have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ural — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Fakel) versus 0.90 (Ural). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fakel, 1 for Ural and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fakel in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ural in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 46% versus Ural 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 32% | Ural 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.86 xG and Ural 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.653 / defence 0.805 | Ural attack 0.821 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.234. Fakel's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Fakel games / 57 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 34% | Draw 34% | Ural 32%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Ural 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Ural's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 30% | Ural 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 34% | Draw 34% | Ural 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Fakel 0.86 / Ural 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.653 / def 0.805 | Ural attack 0.821 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ural xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Ural kick off?
Fakel vs Ural kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Ural?
Fakel 0 - 0 Ural.
Where is Fakel vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Ural part of?
Fakel vs Ural is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 34% chance of winning, Ural a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Fakel and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Ural?
Record (3 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 2 | Ural 1W.
What form are Fakel and Ural in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Ural (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.65) and Ural's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
34%
2.91
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.67
0.81
Ural xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 15.3 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Fakel and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Fakel and 0.81 for Ural, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 57 games, going 14W 21D 22L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ural sit at 1.12 PPG from 57 outings (17W 13D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fakel on 1.11 PPG, Ural on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fakel's home form reads 8W 13D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Ural have taken 0.96 points per game from 28 outings (6W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.05 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Ural in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 14W 21D 22L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while Ural have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Ural away?
Fakel's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.32 PPG; Ural away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Fakel or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ural in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fakel's record when hosting Ural specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fakel
3
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Ural?
From 4 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Ural have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Fakel 0-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Ural?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 46%, Ural 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Fakel) and 46% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 29% of games; Ural in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fakel's recent matches and 39% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Fakel's recent games and 46% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Ural tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Ural in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel and Ural finished level at 0-0 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.86 xG and Ural 0.81 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ural landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.65 / defence 0.81 against Ural attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 34% | Draw 34% | Ural 32%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 32%, Ural 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ural's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fakel 1.11 PPG, Ural 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.