FC Sochi 4-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as FC Sochi welcome CSKA Moscow to Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Sochi have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 1L across 5 games at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — FC Sochi are significantly better at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 3W 1D 3L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.43 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Sochi 1.80 PPG, CSKA Moscow 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
FC Sochi in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 54% versus CSKA Moscow 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 69% | CSKA Moscow 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.31 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 1.185 / defence 1.130 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.863 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.078. Data: 13 FC Sochi games / 13 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 42% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | CSKA Moscow 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sochi as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: FC Sochi 40% | CSKA Moscow 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 42% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Sochi 1.31 / CSKA Moscow 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 1.185 / def 1.130 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.863 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.05
CSKA Moscow xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Sochi 4 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 42% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Sochi's attack at 1.19x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
42%
2.35
28%
3.62
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
2.36
1.05
CSKA Moscow xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.05 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sochi's recent record stands at 8W 0D 5L from 13 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 4L across 13 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sochi on 1.85 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Sochi have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — FC Sochi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sochi are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.31 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 8W 0D 5L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or CSKA Moscow away?
FC Sochi's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 2.40 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.40 PPG.
Have FC Sochi or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sochi have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when FC Sochi won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sochi's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
FC Sochi
1
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 4, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when CSKA Moscow 0-1 FC Sochi.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow?
FC Sochi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Sochi 40% BTTS, CSKA Moscow 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC Sochi) and 20% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: FC Sochi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 40%; CSKA Moscow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 20% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sochi vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of FC Sochi's recent games and 20% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sochi and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Sochi run riot with a 4-1 hammering of CSKA Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sochi beat CSKA Moscow 4-1 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.31 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.05 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Sochi beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 42% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 30%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 69%, CSKA Moscow 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sochi 1.85 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sochi win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.