Arsenal Tula 1-2 FC Sochi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal Tula at 39%, yet in-form FC Sochi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arsenal Tula host FC Sochi at Stadion Arsenal in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal Tula stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 games at Stadion Arsenal this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Sochi have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Sochi have posted 3W 0D 4L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Sochi are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Arsenal Tula in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Sochi in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal Tula 67% versus FC Sochi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arsenal Tula 75% | FC Sochi 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 1.20 xG and FC Sochi 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.873 / defence 1.173 | FC Sochi attack 0.816 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.122. Data: 12 Arsenal Tula games / 12 FC Sochi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 39% | Draw 28% | FC Sochi 33%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | FC Sochi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arsenal Tula at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Sochi (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal Tula offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Arsenal Tula 67% | FC Sochi 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 39% | Draw 28% | FC Sochi 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Arsenal Tula 1.20 / FC Sochi 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.873 / def 1.173 | FC Sochi attack 0.816 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Arsenal Tula (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Sochi xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi?
Arsenal Tula 1 - 2 FC Sochi.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi part of?
Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 39% chance of winning, FC Sochi a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arsenal Tula the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. FC Sochi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arsenal Tula's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against FC Sochi's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sochi's attack versus Arsenal Tula's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Tula Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.51
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.27
1.07
FC Sochi xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.07 for FC Sochi, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Arsenal Tula have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 3D 6L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sochi's form line: 7W 0D 5L from 12 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Sochi are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arsenal Tula.
Venue Form
On home soil, Arsenal Tula have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Arsenal Tula are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Sochi have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Sochi are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Blended
FC Sochi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Sochi have gone 7W 0D 5L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal Tula at home or FC Sochi away?
Arsenal Tula's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal Tula at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Sochi away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arsenal Tula
0
Draws
2
FC Sochi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 0, FC Sochi have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when FC Sochi 2-0 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi?
FC Sochi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arsenal Tula see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arsenal Tula at 67%, FC Sochi at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Arsenal Tula and 83% for FC Sochi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal Tula have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Sochi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / FC Sochi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play FC Sochi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Arsenal Tula's games and 67% of FC Sochi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal Tula vs FC Sochi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Arsenal Tula's matches and 83% of FC Sochi's.
Do Arsenal Tula and FC Sochi tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Sochi in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Sochi defy the odds to beat Arsenal Tula 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sochi beat Arsenal Tula 1-2 at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 1.20 xG and FC Sochi 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Sochi outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against FC Sochi attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 39% | Draw 28% | FC Sochi 33%, with Arsenal Tula to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Sochi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 75%, FC Sochi 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sochi's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.