FC Sochi 1-2 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sochi at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sochi vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sochi host Rubin at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sochi stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 1L across 6 games at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — FC Sochi are significantly better at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Rubin have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
On current form, FC Sochi have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
FC Sochi in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Rubin in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 57% versus Rubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 71% | Rubin 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 2.44 xG and Rubin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 1.368 / defence 1.119 | Rubin attack 0.776 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.083. FC Sochi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing FC Sochi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 FC Sochi games / 14 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 70% | Draw 17% | Rubin 13%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Rubin 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Sochi (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sochi at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Sochi 50% | Rubin 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 70% | Draw 17% | Rubin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Sochi 2.44 / Rubin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 1.368 / def 1.119 | Rubin attack 0.776 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rubin xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs Rubin kick off?
FC Sochi vs Rubin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs Rubin?
FC Sochi 1 - 2 Rubin.
Where is FC Sochi vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs Rubin part of?
FC Sochi vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 70% chance of winning, Rubin a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Sochi and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Rubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sochi and Rubin in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Rubin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sochi's attack rating (1.37) and Rubin's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
70%
1.42
17%
5.82
13%
7.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
3.38
0.94
Rubin xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
7.95
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
9%
11.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
1%
91.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for FC Sochi and 0.94 for Rubin, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs Rubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sochi's recent record stands at 9W 0D 5L from 14 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 5L across 14 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Sochi by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rubin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Sochi have managed 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — FC Sochi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rubin's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rubin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sochi are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and Rubin in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 9W 0D 5L in their last 14 games (1.93 PPG), while Rubin have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or Rubin away?
FC Sochi's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 2.50 PPG; Rubin away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rubin go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when FC Sochi won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sochi's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Sochi
1
Draws
4
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and Rubin?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 1, Rubin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when FC Sochi 0-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 50%, Rubin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Sochi) and 33% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: FC Sochi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rubin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Sochi's recent matches and 50% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sochi vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Sochi's recent games and 33% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sochi and Rubin tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat FC Sochi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat FC Sochi 1-2 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 2.44 xG and Rubin 0.94 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Sochi fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rubin outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 1.37 / defence 1.12 against Rubin attack 0.78 / defence 1.45, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 70% | Draw 17% | Rubin 13%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Rubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 71%, Rubin 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Rubin's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Rubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.