Arsenal Tula 0-0 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal Tula at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees FC UFA travel to Stadion Arsenal to take on Arsenal Tula. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 games at Stadion Arsenal this term (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC UFA stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC UFA have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Arsenal Tula 0.90 PPG, FC UFA 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arsenal Tula register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, FC UFA in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Arsenal Tula in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC UFA in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arsenal Tula 69% and FC UFA 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal Tula 77% | FC UFA 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 1.25 xG and FC UFA 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.864 / defence 1.259 | FC UFA attack 0.746 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.125. FC UFA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Arsenal Tula's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Arsenal Tula games / 13 FC UFA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 41% | Draw 28% | FC UFA 31%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | FC UFA 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arsenal Tula at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal Tula offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Arsenal Tula 71% | FC UFA 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 41% | Draw 28% | FC UFA 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Arsenal Tula 1.25 / FC UFA 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.864 / def 1.259 | FC UFA attack 0.746 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Arsenal Tula (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FC UFA xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA?
Arsenal Tula 0 - 0 FC UFA.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA part of?
Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 41% chance of winning, FC UFA a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arsenal Tula the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Arsenal Tula and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and FC UFA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal Tula and FC UFA in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. FC UFA (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Arsenal Tula's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC UFA's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, FC UFA's attack versus Arsenal Tula's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Tula Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.56
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.31
1.06
FC UFA xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.06 for FC UFA, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arsenal Tula come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 3D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC UFA sit at 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arsenal Tula on 0.92 PPG, FC UFA on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Arsenal Tula's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, FC UFA have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC UFA are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC UFA in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Blended
FC UFA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and FC UFA in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while FC UFA have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal Tula at home or FC UFA away?
Arsenal Tula's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal Tula at home: 1.20 PPG; FC UFA away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arsenal Tula and FC UFA runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arsenal Tula
1
Draws
1
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 0, FC UFA have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when FC UFA 2-1 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal Tula and FC UFA?
FC UFA have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arsenal Tula see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arsenal Tula at 80%, FC UFA at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Arsenal Tula) and 40% (FC UFA).
On the defensive side: FC UFA in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play FC UFA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Arsenal Tula's games and 60% of FC UFA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Arsenal Tula's recent games and 40% of FC UFA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal Tula and FC UFA tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, FC UFA in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Arsenal Tula's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal Tula and FC UFA finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 1.25 xG and FC UFA 1.06 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arsenal Tula fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC UFA landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against FC UFA attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 41% | Draw 28% | FC UFA 31%, with Arsenal Tula to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 77%, FC UFA 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC UFA's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal Tula 0.92 PPG, FC UFA 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC UFA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.