FC Krasnodar 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Krasnodar face CSKA Moscow.

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Full Analysis

Stadion FK Krasnodar plays host to FC Krasnodar versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

FC Krasnodar have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Krasnodar's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, CSKA Moscow have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for FC Krasnodar, 1.70 for CSKA Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC Krasnodar, 2 for CSKA Moscow and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended FC Krasnodar 0–1 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 62% and CSKA Moscow 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 60% | CSKA Moscow 60%). Note also that CSKA Moscow surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while FC Krasnodar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.70 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.141 / defence 0.915 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.176 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.011. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 47 games and CSKA Moscow's last 47.

Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.99 | Draw 3.69 | CSKA Moscow 4.39. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 40% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 80% (last 10 away games).

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