Baltika 0-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rubin at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Rubin travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 16:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baltika stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika at Rostec Arena this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Rubin — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's away record: 4W 1D 3L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Rubin's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Baltika's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Baltika, 1 for Rubin and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Rubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Baltika trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Rubin trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 35% versus Rubin 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 35% | Rubin 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.83 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.702 / defence 1.243 | Rubin attack 0.886 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.011. Baltika's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Baltika games / 17 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 25% | Draw 34% | Rubin 40%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Rubin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rubin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 38% | Rubin 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 25% | Draw 34% | Rubin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Baltika 0.83 / Rubin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.702 / def 1.243 | Rubin attack 0.886 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Rubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rubin xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Rubin kick off?
Baltika vs Rubin kicked off at 16:45 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Baltika 0 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Baltika vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Rubin part of?
Baltika vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 25% chance of winning, Rubin a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Baltika and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
Record (1 meetings): Baltika 0W | Draws 0 | Rubin 1W.
What form are Baltika and Rubin in?
Baltika (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Rubin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.70x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
25%
3.96
34%
2.90
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Baltika xG
Total xG
1.94
1.11
Rubin xG
3.96
25%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Baltika and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Baltika and 1.11 for Rubin, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 3W 4D 10L from 17 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 6L across 17 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rubin by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rubin's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Rubin in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Rubin in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Rubin have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Rubin away?
Rubin's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.38 PPG; Rubin away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Baltika or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Rubin in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baltika and Rubin runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Baltika won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baltika's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Baltika
0
Draws
3
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
From 4 meetings on record, Baltika have won 1, Rubin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baltika 0-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 38% BTTS, Rubin 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Baltika) and 38% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 50%; Baltika have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Baltika's recent matches and 25% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Baltika's recent games and 38% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Rubin tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rubin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.83 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.70 / defence 1.24 against Rubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 25% | Draw 34% | Rubin 40%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 35%, Rubin 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.