Akhmat 0-0 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 55%, yet in-form FC Rostov provide a compelling counter-argument — this Akhmat vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Akhmat Arena plays host to Akhmat versus FC Rostov in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Akhmat (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Akhmat Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Rostov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Rostov are 0.70 PPG clear of Akhmat in recent Premier League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Akhmat have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Rostov in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Akhmat 2W, FC Rostov 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with FC Rostov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
FC Rostov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Akhmat 66% and FC Rostov 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 64% | FC Rostov 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.84 xG and FC Rostov 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.993 / defence 1.100 | FC Rostov attack 0.916 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.036. FC Rostov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Akhmat games / 47 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 55% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 21%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC Rostov 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Akhmat (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Rostov (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 70% | FC Rostov 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 55% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Akhmat 1.84 / FC Rostov 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.993 / def 1.100 | FC Rostov attack 0.916 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Rostov xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs FC Rostov kick off?
Akhmat vs FC Rostov kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Akhmat 0 - 0 FC Rostov.
Where is Akhmat vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs FC Rostov part of?
Akhmat vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 55% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Akhmat and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC Rostov?
Record (5 meetings): Akhmat 2W | Draws 0 | FC Rostov 3W.
What form are Akhmat and FC Rostov in?
Akhmat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.92x) against Akhmat's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.20
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.88
1.04
FC Rostov xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
30.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.04 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 19W 9D 19L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 14L across 47 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Akhmat against 1.55 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 9W 5D 9L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's season.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.53 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; FC Rostov in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or FC Rostov away?
Akhmat's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.39 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won 3-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 5, FC Rostov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and FC Rostov?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Akhmat, 70% for FC Rostov — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Akhmat and 61% for FC Rostov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Akhmat's games and 70% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Akhmat's matches and 61% of FC Rostov's.
Do Akhmat and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Akhmat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Akhmat and FC Rostov drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.84 xG and FC Rostov 1.04 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Akhmat fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Rostov landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against FC Rostov attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 55% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 21%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 64%, FC Rostov 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Rostov's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.40 PPG, FC Rostov 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.