FC Krasnodar 1-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rubin make the trip to Stadion FK Krasnodar to face FC Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
FC Krasnodar's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rubin have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Rubin away from home: 5W 1D 3L from their last 9 away games — 1.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 9 away games (56%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Rubin managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended FC Krasnodar 2–0 Rubin — a FC Krasnodar win.
The head-to-head data gives FC Krasnodar an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Rubin — key trading statistics (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 50% versus Rubin 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Krasnodar 33% | Rubin 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.36 xG and Rubin 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.086 / defence 0.898 | Rubin attack 0.878 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 0.972. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 48 games and Rubin's last 18.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 31% | Rubin 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.02 | Draw 3.23 | Rubin 5.12. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (FC Krasnodar 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Krasnodar's last 10 home games and Rubin's last 9 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 40% (last 10 home games) | Rubin 22% (last 9 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 31% | Rubin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG FC Krasnodar 1.36 / Rubin 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.086 / def 0.898 | Rubin attack 0.878 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.423 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Rubin xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Rubin FAQs
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Rubin kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Rubin kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 1 Rubin.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Rubin part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Rubin is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 50% chance of winning, Rubin a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Rubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (1.09) and Rubin's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.88x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from FC Krasnodar's last 48 games and Rubin's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
50%
2.02
31%
3.23
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.13
0.77
Rubin xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Rubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.77 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 5D 2L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Rubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 8W 1D 0L across their last 9 home games, a 2.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.11 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rubin have taken 1.78 points per game from their last 9 away games (5W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Rubin in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Rubin
Blended
FC Krasnodar (Home) vs Rubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Rubin Form FAQs
What form are FC Krasnodar and Rubin in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 11W 5D 2L in their last 18 games (2.11 PPG), while Rubin have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Rubin away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.78 PPG; Rubin away: 1.78 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Rubin in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between FC Krasnodar and Rubin, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
FC Krasnodar
2
Draws
1
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Rubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Rubin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have won 6, Rubin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Rubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Rubin 1-3 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Rubin?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (FC Krasnodar) and 22% (Rubin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FC Krasnodar and 33% for Rubin.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Rubin in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Rubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Krasnodar and Rubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 22% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Krasnodar and Rubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 33% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Rubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 67% of Rubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar and Rubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 19, as FC Krasnodar and Rubin drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.36 xG and Rubin 0.77 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against Rubin attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 31% | Rubin 20%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 33%, Rubin 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Rubin's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.