FC Krasnodar 1-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rubin make the trip to Stadion FK Krasnodar to face FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadion FK Krasnodar this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion FK Krasnodar. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
Rubin have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin away from home this season: 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours FC Krasnodar, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Rubin — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with FC Krasnodar winning.
The historical record gives FC Krasnodar a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Rubin — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 50% versus Rubin 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Krasnodar 33% | Rubin 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.36 xG and Rubin 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.086 / defence 0.898 | Rubin attack 0.878 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 0.972. Data: 48 FC Krasnodar games / 18 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 31% | Rubin 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Rubin 5.00. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 40% | Rubin 22% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 31% | Rubin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.36 / Rubin 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.086 / def 0.898 | Rubin attack 0.878 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.423 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Rubin xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Rubin kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Rubin kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 1 Rubin.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Rubin part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 50% chance of winning, Rubin a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Rubin?
Record (3 meetings): FC Krasnodar 3W | Draws 0 | Rubin 0W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Rubin in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Rubin (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (1.09) and Rubin's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.88x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
50%
2.02
31%
3.23
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.13
0.77
Rubin xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.77 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 5D 2L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Rubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 8W 1D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.11 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rubin have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Rubin in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Rubin in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 11W 5D 2L in their last 18 games (2.11 PPG), while Rubin have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Rubin away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.78 PPG; Rubin away: 1.78 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Rubin in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
FC Krasnodar
2
Draws
1
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Rubin?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 6, Rubin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Rubin 1-3 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Rubin?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (FC Krasnodar) and 22% (Rubin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FC Krasnodar and 33% for Rubin.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Rubin in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 22% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 33% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Rubin tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rubin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar and Rubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 19, as FC Krasnodar and Rubin drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.36 xG and Rubin 0.77 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against Rubin attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 31% | Rubin 20%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 33%, Rubin 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Rubin's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.