FC Rostov 4-0 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arsenal Tula at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arsenal Tula make the trip to Rostov Arena to face FC Rostov in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Rostov's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Rostov have posted 0W 1D 4L at Rostov Arena — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rostov Arena this season.
Arsenal Tula have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula away from home this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.20 for Arsenal Tula. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Rostov register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Arsenal Tula in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Arsenal Tula — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 91% and Arsenal Tula 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Rostov 64% | Arsenal Tula 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.51 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.870 / defence 1.460 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.908 / defence 1.634. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.201. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.634 — this is suppressing FC Rostov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 FC Rostov games / 11 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 36% | Draw 24% | Arsenal Tula 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Arsenal Tula 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal Tula as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal Tula if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 80% | Arsenal Tula 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 36% | Draw 24% | Arsenal Tula 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Rostov 1.51 / Arsenal Tula 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.870 / def 1.460 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.908 / def 1.634 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Arsenal Tula (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Arsenal Tula xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula?
FC Rostov 4 - 0 Arsenal Tula.
Where is FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula part of?
FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 36% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Arsenal Tula the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Rostov's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Arsenal Tula's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Arsenal Tula's attack (0.91x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Tula Win
36%
2.76
24%
4.19
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
3.10
1.59
Arsenal Tula xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.59 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Rostov come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal Tula sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.09 for Arsenal Tula. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Rostov's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Arsenal Tula have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arsenal Tula's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Rostov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.27 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games; Arsenal Tula in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Arsenal Tula's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 0.20 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
0
Draws
0
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 2, Arsenal Tula have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Arsenal Tula 1-2 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for FC Rostov, 80% for Arsenal Tula — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Rostov and 80% for Arsenal Tula. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Arsenal Tula?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Rostov's games and 80% of Arsenal Tula's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Rostov's matches and 80% of Arsenal Tula's.
Do FC Rostov and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Rostov run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Arsenal Tula.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Arsenal Tula 4-0 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.51 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.59 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arsenal Tula landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.87 / defence 1.46 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.91 / defence 1.63, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 36% | Draw 24% | Arsenal Tula 40%, with Arsenal Tula to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Rostov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 64%, Arsenal Tula 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 0.82 PPG, Arsenal Tula 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.