Zenit 7-1 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zenit at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zenit vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saint-Petersburg Stadium plays host to Zenit versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Zenit (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 1L across 5 games at Saint-Petersburg Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spartak Moscow have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Zenit, 1.70 for Spartak Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Spartak Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zenit 91% and Spartak Moscow 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 73% | Spartak Moscow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.19 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.174 / defence 1.173 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.699 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.161. Data: 11 Zenit games / 11 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 41% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 29%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Spartak Moscow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zenit 80% | Spartak Moscow 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 41% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Zenit 1.19 / Spartak Moscow 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.174 / def 1.173 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.699 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Zenit (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Spartak Moscow xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Zenit 7 - 1 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 41% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zenit and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zenit and Spartak Moscow in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.17) and Spartak Moscow's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (0.70x) against Zenit's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.39
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.14
0.95
Spartak Moscow xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zenit and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Zenit and 0.95 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zenit come into this having played 11 games, going 7W 2D 2L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spartak Moscow sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Zenit's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Spartak Moscow have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zenit are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.18 scored and 0.91 conceded. Zenit's scoring rate against Spartak Moscow's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Zenit's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.40 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Zenit or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won 7-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zenit have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zenit
4
Draws
1
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 5, Spartak Moscow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spartak Moscow tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 80%, Spartak Moscow 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Zenit) and 0% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow in 40%; Spartak Moscow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Zenit's recent matches and 20% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Zenit's recent games and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Spartak Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Spartak Moscow 7-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.19 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.95 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 5.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.70 / defence 0.92, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 41% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 29%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 73%, Spartak Moscow 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.55. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.