FC UFA 1-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rubin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC UFA vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Rubin travel to BetBoom Аrena to take on FC UFA. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC UFA stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BetBoom Аrena, FC UFA have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rubin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Rubin have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (FC UFA) versus 1.20 (Rubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
FC UFA in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rubin in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC UFA 73% versus Rubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC UFA 46% | Rubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC UFA 1.21 xG and Rubin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC UFA attack 0.922 / defence 1.360 | Rubin attack 0.771 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.180. Data: 11 FC UFA games / 11 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC UFA 36% | Draw 27% | Rubin 37%. Fair-value odds: FC UFA 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Rubin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rubin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC UFA 83% | Rubin 25%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC UFA vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: BetBoom Аrena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC UFA 36% | Draw 27% | Rubin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG FC UFA 1.21 / Rubin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC UFA attack 0.922 / def 1.360 | Rubin attack 0.771 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Rubin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC UFA xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Rubin xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC UFA vs Rubin kick off?
FC UFA vs Rubin kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at BetBoom Аrena.
What was the final score in FC UFA vs Rubin?
FC UFA 1 - 1 Rubin.
Where is FC UFA vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at BetBoom Аrena.
What competition is FC UFA vs Rubin part of?
FC UFA vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC UFA vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives FC UFA a 36% chance of winning, Rubin a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC UFA vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC UFA and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will FC UFA vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and Rubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC UFA and Rubin in?
FC UFA (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Rubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC UFA's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Rubin's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus FC UFA's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.66
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC UFA xG
Total xG
2.45
1.24
Rubin xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC UFA vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC UFA and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC UFA and 1.24 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC UFA vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC UFA come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of FC UFA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC UFA's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rubin have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
FC UFA are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.36 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC UFA
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC UFA and Rubin in coming into this match?
FC UFA have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Rubin have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC UFA at home or Rubin away?
FC UFA's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC UFA at home: 1.00 PPG; Rubin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC UFA and Rubin runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC UFA
1
Draws
0
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and Rubin?
From 2 meetings on record, FC UFA have won 1, Rubin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC UFA and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Rubin 1-2 FC UFA.
Who has won more matches between FC UFA and Rubin?
FC UFA have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC UFA 75%, Rubin 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC UFA) and 25% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC UFA home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC UFA play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of FC UFA's recent matches and 25% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC UFA vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC UFA's recent games and 25% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC UFA and Rubin tend to score early?
FC UFA have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC UFA and Rubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BetBoom Аrena, Regular Season - 12, as FC UFA and Rubin drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC UFA 1.21 xG and Rubin 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC UFA attack 0.92 / defence 1.36 against Rubin attack 0.77 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC UFA 36% | Draw 27% | Rubin 37%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC UFA 46%, Rubin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC UFA's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Rubin's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.