CSKA Moscow 1-4 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dynamo travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow in Premier League (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
CSKA Moscow at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dynamo stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dynamo away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for CSKA Moscow, 3 for Dynamo and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended CSKA Moscow 3–1 Dynamo — a CSKA Moscow win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
CSKA Moscow trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Dynamo trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 45% versus Dynamo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 43% | Dynamo 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.58 xG and Dynamo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.113 / defence 0.881 | Dynamo attack 1.058 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 0.963. Data: built from CSKA Moscow's last 49 games and Dynamo's last 49.
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 21%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.89 | Draw 3.81 | Dynamo 4.81. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG CSKA Moscow 1.58 / Dynamo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.113 / def 0.881 | Dynamo attack 1.058 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.507 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Dynamo xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo FAQs
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 4 Dynamo.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 53% chance of winning, Dynamo a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Dynamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Dynamo's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from CSKA Moscow's last 49 games and Dynamo's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.81
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.48
0.90
Dynamo xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
4%
23.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.90 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, CSKA Moscow have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 28W 11D 10L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Dynamo's form line: 22W 14D 13L from 49 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: CSKA Moscow on 1.94 PPG, Dynamo on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, CSKA Moscow have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (16W 4D 4L).
On the road, Dynamo have gone 7W 9D 8L from their last 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.88 scored and 1.24 conceded. Dynamo's attacking output running into CSKA Moscow's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 67%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
CSKA Moscow (Home) vs Dynamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo Form FAQs
What form are CSKA Moscow and Dynamo in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 28W 11D 10L in their last 49 games (1.94 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 22W 14D 13L in their last 49 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Dynamo away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.17 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.25 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Dynamo in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dynamo have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won CSKA Moscow 1-4 Dynamo.
CSKA Moscow's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
5
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Dynamo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Dynamo have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Dynamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Dynamo 3-1 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 42%, Dynamo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (CSKA Moscow) and 50% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in CSKA Moscow and Dynamo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are CSKA Moscow and Dynamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 50% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Dynamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo run riot with a 1-4 hammering of CSKA Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat CSKA Moscow 1-4 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.58 xG and Dynamo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo outscored their 0.90 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Dynamo attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 21%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 43%, Dynamo 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.94 PPG, Dynamo 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.