🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 38%, yet in-form Baltika provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Rostov vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC Rostov host Baltika at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, FC Rostov have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, FC Rostov have posted 3W 3D 4L at Rostov Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Baltika — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Baltika's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baltika — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Rostov have won 1, Baltika 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

FC Rostov in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Baltika in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Rostov 42% | Baltika 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Rostov 26% | Baltika 16%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 0.99 xG and Baltika 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.860 / defence 1.040 | Baltika attack 0.826 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 0.981. Baltika's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 FC Rostov games / 19 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Baltika 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baltika (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 40% | Baltika 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights