FC Rostov 1-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 38%, yet in-form Baltika provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Rostov vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Rostov host Baltika at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Rostov have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Rostov have posted 3W 3D 4L at Rostov Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Baltika — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baltika — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Rostov have won 1, Baltika 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Rostov in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baltika in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Rostov 42% | Baltika 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Rostov 26% | Baltika 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 0.99 xG and Baltika 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.860 / defence 1.040 | Baltika attack 0.826 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 0.981. Baltika's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 FC Rostov games / 19 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Baltika 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baltika (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 40% | Baltika 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG FC Rostov 0.99 / Baltika 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.860 / def 1.040 | Baltika attack 0.826 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.453 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Baltika xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Baltika kick off?
FC Rostov vs Baltika kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Baltika?
FC Rostov 1 - 1 Baltika.
Where is FC Rostov vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Baltika part of?
FC Rostov vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 38% chance of winning, Baltika a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Rostov and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Baltika?
Record (3 meetings): FC Rostov 1W | Draws 2 | Baltika 0W.
What form are FC Rostov and Baltika in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Baltika (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Rostov's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Baltika's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.09
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
1.83
0.84
Baltika xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.84 for Baltika, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, FC Rostov have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 5W 6D 8L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika's form line: 9W 8D 2L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baltika are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Rostov.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Rostov have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Baltika have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.26 scored and 0.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika in 26%.
Defensively: FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Baltika in 63% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Baltika in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Baltika have gone 9W 8D 2L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Baltika away?
Baltika's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.33 PPG; Baltika away: 1.67 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Baltika in 63%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
FC Rostov's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Rostov
3
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Baltika?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 1, Baltika have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FC Rostov 1-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Baltika?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Rostov 44% BTTS, Baltika 11%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for FC Rostov and 22% for Baltika.
On the defensive side: FC Rostov keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Baltika in 67%; Baltika in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 11% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Rostov vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of FC Rostov's recent games and 22% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
FC Rostov and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov and Baltika finished level at 1-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.99 xG and Baltika 0.84 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Baltika attack 0.83 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 26%, Baltika 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Baltika's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.