FC Rostov 2-2 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs FC UFA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as FC Rostov welcome FC UFA to Rostov Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Rostov stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov's home record at Rostov Arena: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rostov Arena this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC UFA have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC UFA have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
FC Rostov carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
FC Rostov trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC UFA trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 86% and FC UFA 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 64% | FC UFA 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.76 xG and FC UFA 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.298 / defence 1.331 | FC UFA attack 0.670 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.078. FC Rostov carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 FC Rostov games / 14 FC UFA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 56% | Draw 23% | FC UFA 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | FC UFA 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Rostov (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 71% | FC UFA 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 56% | Draw 23% | FC UFA 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Rostov 1.76 / FC UFA 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.298 / def 1.331 | FC UFA attack 0.670 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC UFA xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs FC UFA kick off?
FC Rostov vs FC UFA kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs FC UFA?
FC Rostov 2 - 2 FC UFA.
Where is FC Rostov vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs FC UFA part of?
FC Rostov vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 56% chance of winning, FC UFA a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Rostov and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and FC UFA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Rostov and FC UFA in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. FC UFA (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Rostov's attack rating (1.30) and FC UFA's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC UFA's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.27
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.72
0.96
FC UFA xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
4%
28.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.96 for FC UFA, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs FC UFA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC UFA, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 6L across 14 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Rostov on 1.14 PPG, FC UFA on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC UFA's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC UFA are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; FC UFA in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
FC UFA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and FC UFA in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while FC UFA have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or FC UFA away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.17 PPG; FC UFA away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Rostov
2
Draws
0
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 0, FC UFA have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2022, when FC UFA 0-0 FC Rostov.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC UFA see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Rostov at 83%, FC UFA at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (FC Rostov) and 33% (FC UFA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC UFA in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play FC UFA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of FC Rostov's games and 50% of FC UFA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs FC UFA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Rostov's matches and 33% of FC UFA's.
Do FC Rostov and FC UFA tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC UFA in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov and FC UFA share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 15, as FC Rostov and FC UFA drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.76 xG and FC UFA 0.96 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC UFA outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.30 / defence 1.33 against FC UFA attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 56% | Draw 23% | FC UFA 20%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 64%, FC UFA 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
FC UFA's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.14 PPG, FC UFA 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC UFA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.