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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akhmat and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Akhmat and Baltika drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.25 xG and Baltika 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Baltika attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 43% | Draw 29% | Baltika 29%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 48%, Baltika 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Baltika's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights