Akhmat 1-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Baltika — this Akhmat vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Baltika at Akhmat-Arena in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akhmat stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Akhmat at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Baltika — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Baltika away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 1.50 PPG, Baltika 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Baltika have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Akhmat. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Akhmat 0–2 Baltika — a Baltika win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Baltika have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Baltika in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 56% versus Baltika 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 48% | Baltika 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.25 xG and Baltika 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.889 / defence 0.855 | Baltika attack 1.048 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.077. Data: built from Akhmat's last 55 games and Baltika's last 25.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 29% | Baltika 29%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.35 | Draw 3.46 | Baltika 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Akhmat's last 10 home games and Baltika's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Akhmat 50% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 29% | Baltika 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Akhmat 1.25 / Baltika 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.889 / def 0.855 | Baltika attack 1.048 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Baltika xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika FAQs
What time does Akhmat vs Baltika kick off?
Akhmat vs Baltika kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Akhmat-Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Baltika?
Akhmat 1 - 1 Baltika.
Where is Akhmat vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Baltika part of?
Akhmat vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 43% chance of winning, Baltika a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Akhmat and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Akhmat vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Baltika's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Akhmat's last 55 games and Baltika's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.46
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.21
0.96
Baltika xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.96 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat's recent record stands at 8W 7D 10L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 2L across 25 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baltika by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 7W 1D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baltika's away record stands at 4W 6D 2L across their last 12 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.44 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: Baltika in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Baltika
Blended
Akhmat (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akhmat
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are Akhmat and Baltika in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Baltika have gone 11W 12D 2L in their last 25 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Baltika away?
Akhmat's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.83 PPG; Baltika away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Baltika in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when Baltika won Akhmat 1-7 Baltika.
Akhmat's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Baltika?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Akhmat have won 0, Baltika have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Akhmat 0-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 42%, Baltika 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Akhmat) and 33% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Baltika in 50%; Baltika in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akhmat and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Akhmat's recent matches and 33% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Akhmat and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Akhmat's recent games and 33% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Baltika matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Akhmat's recent matches and 58% of Baltika's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Akhmat and Baltika drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.25 xG and Baltika 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Baltika attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 43% | Draw 29% | Baltika 29%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 48%, Baltika 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Baltika's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.